[SMM Metal Morning reference] the US dollar is higher and metal prices are under pressure * the European Central Bank extends bank leverage by nine months * LME copper stocks soar by 25000 tons a day compared with the price is expected to be further repair

[overnight market] Metal prices are frustrated. Fed hawks speak to push up the dollar.

[macro foresight] pay attention to the change of loan interest rate in China

Metals in and out of the market fell more or less on Friday, with (LME) copper prices on the London Metal Exchange suffering its biggest weekly decline since March 2020, after the US Federal Reserve hinted that it would begin to tighten monetary policy, while China announced that it would sell national reserves such as copper, aluminum and zinc, causing metal prices to fall sharply. Copper stocks in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses rose 24925 tonnes on Friday to 168675 tonnes, the highest level since April.

The dollar continued to rise on Friday and continued to rise. Earlier, the Fed's speech unexpectedly turned to hawks, hinting that it would raise interest rates and end its emergency bond-buying program ahead of schedule, igniting a rally in the dollar, which continued to rise.

Us stocks fell across the board on Friday, and investors were worried about the Fed's fear of raising interest rates in advance. Although Powell later tried to appease the market sentiment, saying that the dot matrix map is not a tool for predicting future interest rates, the market impact continues to ferment. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 532 points, or 1.6%. The s & p 500 index fell 1.3%, while the Nasdaq composite index closed down 0.9%. Both the Dow and the S & P 500 hit lows in the final minutes of trading. Overall, the Dow Jones index has fallen 3.5% this week, its biggest weekly decline since October. The s & p 500 and Nasdaq are also down 1.9% and 0.2% respectively so far this week.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil futures closed higher on Friday, reversing an earlier decline and recording a fourth consecutive weekly rise after OPEC (OPEC) sources said that despite rising oil prices, OPEC expects limited growth in US oil production this year.

In precious metals, COMEX futures fell to a seven-week low on Friday as gold came under pressure as the Fed's hawkish statement pushed the dollar higher.

The A-share gem index showed a strong performance on Friday, but fell back after rising, narrowing the gain and fluctuating in a narrow range of Prev. Specifically, China's Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.51 points, down 0.01% at 3525.1 points; China Shenzhen Composite Index closed up 111.3 points, or 0.77%, at 14583.67 points; China's CSI index closed up 0.57 points, or 0.01%, at 5102.47 points; and the China gem Index closed up 50.63 points, or 1.59%, at 3239.23 points. On the disk, lithium batteries and new energy vehicles continued to power in the afternoon, the plate rose and stopped, semiconductor chips and organosilicon were strong throughout the day, digital currency and defense military industry were active, and coal, liquor and Hongmeng concepts led the decline.

LME inventory

Macro focus

[Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam: Hong Kong will strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050] Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said on the 20th that Hong Kong will strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Last year, Hong Kong set up an inter-agency steering group on green and sustainable finance and issued a strategic plan, which will work with the financial industry and stakeholders to promote the project to strengthen Hong Kong's financial ecosystem, enhance Hong Kong's position as a green and sustainable financial hub in the region, support green enterprises and projects in the mainland, promote the building of the country's ecological civilization and green development, and tie in with the country's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

[ECB extends bank leverage by nine months] the ECB said it would extend a key epidemic relief measure for another nine months to ensure that banks can continue to provide credit to the real economy. The ECB said in a statement on Friday that it would allow banks to continue to exclude central bank deposits when calculating leverage until March next year. The measure, which was due to expire on June 27, essentially makes the banks' financial position look stronger, allowing them to use their existing capital reserves to do more business.

[central bank newspaper: unfounded so-called liquidity forecasts can stop] the central bank newspaper commented that in early May this year, some market analysts believed that since May is the traditional time for the settlement and settlement of corporate income tax, fiscal deposits will rise sharply, superimposed by factors such as an increase in local bond issuance, market liquidity may tighten marginally and lead to increased interest rate volatility. Many financial market experts refute this view, arguing that liquidity will not fluctuate significantly in May. In retrospect, worries about tightening funding in May are indeed unnecessary.

[key points of Beijing 2021 Energy work "issued. This year's high-quality energy consumption will reach more than 98%. The Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission recently issued" Beijing 2021 Energy work Essentials "to take the lead for Beijing's energy work in the new year. According to the main points of work, the city will continue to optimize its energy structure. Coal consumption will be controlled within 1.5 million tons this year, high-quality energy consumption will reach more than 98%, and renewable energy will account for more than 9% of energy consumption.

[Huawei Zero carbon China Bank 2021 Nanchang Conference held on the 24th] under the guidance of Jiangxi Provincial Energy Bureau, the "Zero carbon China Bank 2021 Nanchang" conference jointly sponsored by Huawei and Jiangxi Energy Research Association will be held in Nanchang on June 24. With the theme of "energy digitization, helping carbon neutralization", the conference discusses the development trend and future opportunities of the energy industry, as well as the technological innovation and application practice of energy digitization. A number of companies have joined the wave of digital transformation of the energy industry. Huawei, as one of the industry leaders, has taken the lead in establishing digital energy subsidiaries, enabling the digital transformation of the energy industry, and relevant cooperation companies are expected to usher in rapid development opportunities.

[rocket attack on Assad Air Base in Iraq] on June 20, local time, the Iraqi security department issued a statement saying that the Assad air base in western Anbar province was attacked by a rocket, but the rocket did not explode, causing no casualties or any damage. Preliminary investigations show that the rocket was fired in the direction of the small town of Bagdadi in the northeast of the base, with a straight distance of about 10 kilometers. Iraqi security services are conducting further investigations in the surrounding areas.

[China's speed and quantity of new crown vaccine research and development is the first phalanx in the world] Zeng Yixin, deputy director of the National Health Commission and head of the vaccine research and development team of the Joint Defense and Control Mechanism of the State Council, introduced in an interview that the speed and quantity of new crown vaccine research and development in China have always been in the first square in the world. In China, 21 novel coronavirus vaccines have entered the clinical trial stage. At present, four vaccines have been approved and listed conditionally in China, and three vaccines have been approved for emergency use in China, achieving comprehensive coverage of inactivated vaccines, recombinant protein vaccines, adenovirus vector vaccines and nucleic acid vaccines in overseas clinical trials.

Japan will lift the state of emergency and the government calls for strict control. According to the Japan Broadcasting Association Television, there were 1520 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 28 new deaths across Japan on the 19th. At present, Japan has a total of 783850 confirmed cases and 14406 deaths. Today (20) is the last day of the state of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka Prefecture and other seven regions, which will implement "key measures such as spread prevention" with less control from the 21st, but the Japanese government said that after the state of emergency is lifted, all localities still need to strictly control the epidemic.

[17611 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Russia] according to information released on the official website of novel coronavirus epidemic prevention in Russia, as of 11:00 Moscow time on 20 June, there were 17611 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Russia in the past 24 hours, with a total of 5316826 confirmed cases.

Today's focus

[SMM analysis: Fed sends hawkish signal copper price is still on the downside] the benchmark interest rate and bond purchase program remain unchanged at the Fed's interest rate meeting this week. The bitmap predicts that there will be two interest rate increases by the end of 2023, policy tightening is expected to be faster than previously expected, and committee members will begin to discuss scaling back the bond purchase program. At the same time, the Fed raised its inflation forecast for 2021 to 2023, and the Fed is gradually sending a hawkish signal, with the dollar index rising to near 92 for three days in a row. "View details

[SMM analysis: copper import price comparison repair foreign trade market selling sentiment alleviated] Electrolytic copper foreign trade market sentiment changed during the week. From the perspective of price comparison, the import window is still closed, but the range of loss has obviously narrowed from 800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to less than 400 yuan / ton at the end of the week, the rising water of domestic trade is high, the demand for goods in the foreign trade market is more active, and the sentiment of selling goods for cash in the market has eased somewhat, but the pattern of oversupply of goods has not been reversed. "View details

[SMM analysis: LME copper inventory soared by 25000 tons a day compared with the price is expected to be further repaired] today, LME copper inventory rose 24925 tons to 168675 tons, an increase of 17.34%, the biggest increase since September 2020. All the LME inventory increments come from Rotterdam warehouses in the Netherlands. After the release of the data, Lun copper disk fell from 9263 US dollars / ton in a straight line, falling 9225 US dollars / ton. "View details

[SMM Research] in the face of falling prices, SMM continued to track the actual orders and production of die-casting enterprises this week to get a glimpse of the actual demand downstream of recycled aluminum. The specific research is as follows. "View details

[SMM Analysis: aluminum Price shock superimposed off season near Aluminum profile Enterprise Survey] since late May, the spot of aluminum ingots has shown a fluctuating trend, the aluminum market is gradually unclear, and people in the industry see almost half of the two directions. On Wednesday, the State Food and material Reserve Bureau issued a notice saying that it will release national reserves of copper, aluminum, zinc and so on in batches in the near future. The long-rumored sell-off has finally settled, in addition, this week's Fed interest rate meeting triggered market expectations of an early rate rise, leading to a general fall in non-ferrous metal prices, but the subsequent aluminum trend was weak, but the market still failed to sing too short. Under the background of unstable aluminum prices, SMM research simply understands the actual situation of some aluminum profile enterprises, so as to see the demand situation of aluminum profile enterprises. "View details

[SMM analysis: how is the recent performance of the processing fee for aluminum bar accumulation in the downstream of concussion? According to SMM statistics, the national aluminum bar inventory increased by 12400 tons to 100700 tons on June 17, 2021, an increase of 14%, and the inventory level was slightly higher. Except for Wuxi area, Foshan, Changzhou and Nanchang all showed accumulative storage, and the accumulation extent was not low. Foshan inventory increased by 17.4%, Changzhou inventory increased by 32.2%, and Nanchang inventory increased by 22.3%. "View details

[SMM analysis: the coming of the off-season "oversupply" highlights the decline in recycled aluminum prices. Since the aluminum price fell at the end of May, the price of recycled aluminum has been depressed. The spread between ADC12 and A00 aluminum prices has fallen rapidly and turned upside down. SMM believes that the coming of the off-season and the increase in the arrival of imported aluminum alloy ingots lead to a glut of supply, which leads to the continued weakness of recycled aluminum prices. "View details

[SMM research: poor profits, overhaul, stop production and recycled lead start-up rate continues to decline] according to the SMM (SMM) survey, this week (June 15-June 18) SMM recycled lead smelting enterprises in the four provinces have a weekly operating rate of 42.55%, down 9.61% from last week. "check the details.

[SMM data: low consumption and small increase in inventories of recycled alternative primary lead refineries] SMM6 18: according to SMM research, as of June 18, the inventory of primary lead delivery brands reached 12400 tons, up 1750 tons from last Friday. "View details

[SMM comment: social inventory of lead ingots is growing. Shanghai lead shock rebound is quite suppressed.] domestic social inventory of lead ingots hit the 130000-ton mark this week, refreshing inventory levels again. The accumulation of inventory under the background of the off-season of consumption has become a limit after every rebound in lead prices. Since the 2107 contract of lead in Shanghai reached a high level in early May, the high level of lead rebound in Shanghai, which maintained a high shock, has gradually declined, and in the early summer when Shanshan came late in the peak consumption season, the recent high level of lead in Shanghai may form a pressure level again. "View details

[SMM survey: it is difficult for galvanizing enterprises to improve under the increasing inventory pressure of finished products] according to the (SMM) survey of Shanghai Nonferrous net, the start of galvanizing enterprises has not improved after the Dragon Boat Festival, and zinc ingots still maintain a rigid demand for replenishing the stock at a low price. Most galvanizing plants maintained normal production during the week, but steel prices have not yet stabilized. Although galvanized pipe profits have been repaired, there is a price war in some pipe factories in the north, affecting the start-up of small and medium-sized enterprises; and East China. "check the details.

[SMM survey: zinc ingots fell sharply over the weekend to boost the opening of die-casting alloy plants] according to the (SMM) survey of Shanghai Nonferrous net, the start-up of alloy plants has dropped slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, zinc prices fluctuated at a high level, terminal procurement was weak, basic rigid demand was dominated by a small amount of procurement, demand declined as a whole, and some factories stopped production to deal with it, mainly to consume the inventory of finished products, which was a drag on the overall start-up. With the sharp fall in zinc prices on Friday, the demand for terminal replenishment picked up, leading to a positive increase in the production of alloy mills. At the same time, alloy factories also increased the stock of zinc ingots. During the week, the stock of raw materials in the alloy plant increased, while the inventory of finished products decreased. Next week is expected. "check the details.

[SMM Analysis Lithium Iron Phosphate Market continued to grow in May production increased 168.8%] downstream terminal demand suddenly soared in the fourth quarter of 2020. New energy vehicles, electric two-wheelers, energy storage and other markets all showed a trend of volume volume in varying degrees, while the price of lithium iron, driven by strong demand downstream, has also experienced a surge since the middle of December last year. "check the details of the price of power iron lithium."

[SMM analysis of the high nickel process dragged down the demand for lithium carbonate of series 5 temporarily] the demand for lithium carbonate of ternary materials increased by only 4% month-on-month in May, mainly in the increment of series 6, and the trend of high nickelization will make the edge of series 5 gradually diminish. "View details

[laterite Nickel Weekly Review] the average price of 1.5%CIF on Friday was 64 US dollars / wet ton, unchanged from last Friday, because it is expected that the large imports of nickel ore at the end of the rainy season will lead to lower prices. Most shippers have sold all the July shipments. The negotiable goods in the market are scarce and the quotation is high. The price in the northern region of 1.5%CIF is 70 US dollars / wet ton, and as the profit margin of downstream nickel pig iron increases and sea freight increases. There is a possibility that the quotation will continue to rise. "View details

[bonded area Pure Nickel inventory few traded inventories in the bonded area remained flat for the third week in a row] SMM June 18: according to SMM research, pure nickel inventory in Shanghai bonded area is flat on Friday compared with last Friday. The supply of goods available for circulation in the bonded area is limited, the offer is few this week, and trading continues to be deserted. The inventory of pure nickel in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged at 9700 tons for the third week in a row. "View details

[SMM analysis of stainless steel futures prices are high callback profit level narrowed but still high] after the holiday this week, stainless steel market turnover performance is slightly light, on the one hand, 304 cold rolling resources shortage, limit trading volume; on the other hand. "View details

[SMM data from January to May China's cumulative export volume of titanium dioxide increased by 11.16% compared with the same period last year] SMM June 20: according to customs statistics, the cumulative export volume of titanium dioxide in China from January to May in 2021 was 540000 tons, an increase of 11.16% over the same period last year, of which the export volume of titanium dioxide in May was 104800 tons, down 2.19% from the previous month and an increase of 57.74% over the same period last year. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[China Engineering International: signed a major contract of US $1.196 billion] announced that the company signed a commercial contract for the comprehensive development project of Kazakh Suk natural gas with Kazakhstan Sook Oil and Gas Co., Ltd. The comprehensive natural gas development project in Suk, Kazakhstan, with a commercial contract value of US $1.196 billion, is located in Turkestan and Kizil Orda. the purpose of the project is to build a production and development facility with an annual production capacity of 6 billion cubic meters of natural gas. the scope of the project includes drilling wells, internal gathering and transportation systems, oil and gas processing plants, external pipelines and supporting projects.

[Gezhouba signed an alumina refinery project with an annual capacity of 2 million tons in Indonesia] recently, China can build Gezhouba Group and Indonesian Raman Mining Company (PT.). LAMAN MINING) officially signed the EPC contract for the Indonesian alumina refinery project, successfully breaking through the Indonesian large-scale metallurgical industry market. It is understood that the project is about 180km away from Kundian, capital of West Kalimantan, Indonesia. The main work is to build an alumina refinery with a production scale of 2 million tons per year, with a contract period of 33 months. This project is another major overseas project signed by Gezhouba since the beginning of this year, following the Balakot Hydropower Project in Pakistan and the Wisdom City Development Project at Shaka Ridge in Durban, South Africa.

[Guangxi rare earth industry annual output value exceeds 5 billion yuan] A few days ago, the reporter learned from a forum of relevant cities, counties and leading rare earth industry enterprises held by the Natural Resources Department of the autonomous region that in recent years, Guangxi has continuously improved the technical level of rare earth development and utilization, and achieved gratifying results: the annual mining and smelting separation of rare earths in the region reached 2500 tons and 4300 tons respectively, the separation capacity of rare earths was 14000 tons, and the annual output value exceeded 5 billion yuan.

[88 per cent of South Korea's demand for NdFeB depends on China] global demand for NdFeB is on the rise, according to a report released by (International Trade and Commerce Research Institute), a research institute for international trade and commerce under the Korea International Trade Association ((Korea International Trade Association)). South Korea relies on China for 88 per cent of NdFeB demand, reflecting South Korea's heavy dependence on Chinese rare earths.

[polysilicon imports maintained growth in May compared with the previous month] Customs data show that China's polysilicon imports in May 2021 were 10100 tons, an increase of 9.1% month-on-month and 38.9% higher than the same period last year. From January to May, the cumulative import of polysilicon was 46000 tons, down 3.7% from the same period last year.

[agreement for Inner Mongolia 300000 ton Tar processing Project signed] in early June, Baotou Steel Co., Ltd., a very large heavy chemical enterprise in Inner Mongolia, signed a cooperation framework agreement with Baowu carbon material Technology Co., Ltd on "300000 t / a tar deep processing project of Baotou Iron and Steel Co., Ltd." and Baowu Qingneng Company "oxygen production system and new energy project of old system of Baotou Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.", marking the official launch of a series of new chemical projects in Baotou City.

[Jingao Science and Technology: 315 million yuan capital increase in Inner Mongolia Xinte to ensure the stable supply of polysilicon materials] June 18, Jingao Science and Technology announcement, in order to ensure the stable supply of polysilicon materials, the company plans to increase capital and shares in Inner Mongolia Xinte Silicon material Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xinte Energy, and with Inner Mongolia Xinte as the main body, to build an annual production of 100000 tons of high-purity polysilicon green energy circular economy construction project. The company contributed 315 million yuan in currency, and after the capital increase was completed, it held a 9% stake in Inner Mongolia Xinte. Jingao Technology said that Suntech is one of the company's important suppliers.

Terminal information

[AlixPartners: US car sales will reach 16.4 million units in the second half of this year chip shortage persists] according to foreign media reports, consulting firm AlixPartners said that thanks to strong incentive programs in the United States, the auto industry has recovered more than expected, but is now facing profitability problems due to rising prices and shortages of raw materials. In its Automotive Industry Outlook released on June 16th, AlixPartners said US car inventories have fallen 70 per cent from the start of the year, limiting sales in the coming months, but should start to increase in the fourth quarter if there are no other disruptions.

Wan Gang, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese people's political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, said that the development of China's new energy vehicle industry urgently needs to further enhance its strategic positioning, increase support, and take advantage of the situation to achieve self-reliance in the core technology and key links of the industrial chain. It is suggested that the relevant departments should speed up the study and formulation of support policies in the post-subsidy era and extend the policy of tax relief for the purchase of new energy vehicles; maintain fiscal and tax support for the use of new energy vehicles and infrastructure such as charging and hydrogenation for public services such as public transport, logistics, rental and public service; and formulate systematic policies to support the carbon peak and carbon neutralization strategy as soon as possible.

[Tianci material plans to expand production by 1.562 billion and set up a joint venture company to build iron phosphate project] on June 17, Tianci material issued three investment announcements successively, agreeing to the company's wholly-owned grandson company Chizhou Tianzhi to use self-raised funds to invest in the construction of an annual lithium electricity new material project with an annual production capacity of 152000 tons, and agreed that the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Tianshixin Power Company will use self-raised funds to invest in the construction of an annual electrolyte basic material project with an annual production capacity of 62000 tons. The company plans to set up a joint venture subsidiary to invest in the construction of an annual ferric phosphate project with an annual output of 300000 tons (phase I).

[Jucan Optoelectronics: the price of the company's products has increased to a certain extent] Jucan Optoelectronics said on the interactive platform that the price of the company's products has increased to a certain extent. Through the analysis of internal data, we can see that the average sales price has indeed increased steadily, and the specific range of price increase varies greatly from product to product.

[Demei Chemical Co., Ltd., Shunde District, Foshan City, produces and operates silicone products.] Demei Chemical said on the interactive platform that the company's holding subsidiary Demewak silicone Co., Ltd., Shunde District, Foshan City, produces and operates organosilicon products, including silicone finishing agents, silicone leather auxiliaries, silicone fiber softeners, silicone defoamers, spinning finishes and other products. The company is in normal production and operation.

[the cumulative total decommissioning of power batteries in China reached 200000 tons in 2020 is expected to rise to 780000 tons by 2025] according to industry statistics, the cumulative total decommissioning of power batteries in China reached about 200000 tons in 2020, and this figure will rise to about 780000 tons by 2025. According to industry insiders, each new energy vehicle is generally loaded with a complete lithium battery package. After recycling, it can be disassembled into modules or cells to form small batteries for low-speed electric vehicles, solar street lamps and other products, or multiple complete batteries can be packed together to store energy for wind, optoelectronic and other scenes. However, the battery pole structure is different, more battery packages can only be disassembled by hand, the cost is high. In addition, in order to protect the key technical information, the manufacturers will also set the read permission to the battery power management system. Experts believe that with the growth of the number of power batteries in our country, the basic specifications of batteries will be unified as much as possible, which can bring benefits for storage, disassembly, safety and other links.

[SUNING 618Battle report: intelligent floor washer sales growth of more than 1100%] SUNING big data showed that intelligent and healthy household appliances were very popular during the period. With high temperatures in many places in the north and south, sales of air conditioners with fresh air and dehumidification functions increased by 246%, the turnover of washing machines with drying and sterilization functions increased by 274%, and the turnover of refrigerators with net flavor bacteriostatic functions increased by 191%. With the approach of summer vacation, sales of eye-protecting smart voice large-screen televisions increased by 173%. The sales of intelligent floor washers increased by more than 1100%, and they were promoted to be the number one brother of clean household appliances.

Enjie shares: Shanghai Enjie plans to invest in the construction of lithium battery isolation membrane project and aluminum-plastic film project in Jiangsu Jintan Economic Development Zone, with planned fixed assets of about 5.2 billion yuan and 1.6 billion yuan.